Sulphur's Marginal Buyer Is Stepping Back
Phosphate and Indonesian nickel are stepping back at the same time. The sulphur correction is now less about where tonnes are available and more about who can still afford to consume them.
Sulphur is getting cheaper. Supply isn’t getting easier.
China granular CFR:
- August: ~$1,050/t
- This week: $825/t
Persian Gulf freight is still $140-200/t. Supply is still difficult.
What changed is demand:
- China: phosphate producers aren’t restocking, even with port stocks at less than half last year’s level.
- Indonesia: Chinese nickel producers are discussing HPAL cuts of up to 50%.
Some of the “new supply” is really tonnes whose buyer disappeared.
The market is finding an affordability ceiling, not a surplus.
In the article: where that ceiling sits, and the signals I’m watching for demand to come back.